ALB Micki

Saturday, November 30, 2024

For the Kremlin

 




Russia’s ruble is sagging against other currencies, complicating the Kremlin’s efforts to keep consumer inflation under control with one hand even as it overheats the economy with spending on the war against Ukraine with the other.


The official central bank rate for Friday was set at 109 to the U.S. dollar, meaning the ruble is worth less than a penny in dollar terms. At that rate, the ruble was bouncing back from lows around 114 to the dollar touched earlier in the week.


There have been similar declines against the Chinese yuan, which has largely replaced dollars and euros for foreign trade after sanctions imposed by Ukraine’s Western allies cut Russia off from most dealings with Western companies and banks.


Russians interviewed on the street Friday in Moscow - where incautious remarks can lead to jail time - took the decline in stride.


Muscovite Yekaterina, who declined to offer her last name, said she had just made a prepayment for a vacation in Egypt, adding “I’m afraid to know what the rest of payment will be.” But she added: “Maybe it only concerns us individually, people who love travelling. But for Russian economy it’s not that bad. Internal tourism, domestic industry are developing.”


Related Stories

Russia's central bank raises interest rate to 21% to fight inflation boosted by military spending

Inflation rose to 2.3% in Europe. That won't stop the central bank from cutting interest rates

Higher energy bills push UK inflation to 6-month high in October

Semyon, again no last name, was even less concerned. “My salary is in rubles, I pay taxes in rubles, I buy a car in rubles and buy groceries in rubles. What do I need the dollar for, explain that to me, please.”



The Kremlin is engaged in a tricky juggle. Government spending on the war has factories running at top speed and the economy growing more strongly than many expected given sanctions. The resulting inflation - an annual 8.5% in October - has led the central bank to crank up its interest rate benchmark to a painful 21% to slow borrowing and spending. That has led to complaints from business leaders hit with high credit costs and fostered predictions from economists that tight credit will eventually slow the economy.


Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the recent decline was “connected not only with inflation processes, it is also connected with payments to the budget, it is connected with oil prices, there are many factors of a seasonal nature.”


“Therefore, in general, in my opinion, the situation is under control and there are certainly no grounds for panic.”


The ruble and inflation nonetheless remain key concerns for the Kremlin, said Janis Kluge, an expert on the Russian economy at the German Institute for Security and International Affairs in Berlin.


“The inflation rate and the exchange rate, those two are very visible and you can feel it in your pocket,” he said. “And there is no propaganda in the world that will convince you prices are not rising when prices are rising. So this is why the Kremlin is so sensitive and really prioritizes fighting inflation so much.”


A lower ruble means Russians will over time pay more for imports, especially for autos, household appliances and electronics made in China, now Russia’s chief trade partner, said Kluge.


There are multiple reasons behind the ruble’s recent decline from levels as high as 85 to the dollar in August. The price of oil - Russia’s most important export - has weakened; foreign investors are no longer available to purchase ruble investments, and Russia’s inflation rate means its currency tends to lose value against those of trade partners.


A key factor recently may have been U.S. Treasury Department sanctions against Russia’s Gazprombank, announced Nov. 21. Since the bank was the conduit for customers for what was left of Russia’s oil and natural gas trade in Europe, the sanctions blocked one source of foreign earnings and increased pressure on the ruble. A big question is when, and whether, Russia might find a workaround for that.


The weaker ruble isn’t all bad for the Kremlin, since it increases oil and gas export earnings in ruble terms. For now the central bank is managing the rate as best it can after the shock of Gazprombank sanctions, said Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro-Advisory Ltd. Since there is no open market trading of the ruble on the Moscow or any other exchange due to sanctions, the rate is set by the central bank based on its estimate of trade requirements.


“The market now is entirely under the control of the central bank, and they set the rates every evening based on what they see, the inflow of money coming from from Russians exporters and the demand for FX from companies who want to buy goods,” said Weafer, using the abbreviation for foreign exchange.


“Nevertheless, there there was this shock element of when Gazprombank was added to sanctions,” he said. “They have decided that the best course of action over the short term is to allow the ruble to weaken. And that is because it significantly helps the finance ministry.”


The central bank will have to juggle inflation and budget concerns and come up with the rate best suited to circumstances, said Weafer. One way of doing that would be to require exporters to change more of their foreign currency earnings to rubles: “They will have to put all of those factors together and come up with what they believe is the optimal rate.”

UK inflation Pushed to 6-month high in October

 

 Inflation in the U.K. rose sharply to a six-month high in October and back above the rate targeted by rate-setters at the Bank of England, official figures showed Wednesday, cementing market expectations that there will be no further cuts in borrowing costs this year.


The Office for National Statistics said higher domestic energy bills pushed up consumer price inflation up to 2.3% in the year to October from the three-year low of 1.7% recorded the previous month. Stubbornly high inflation in the services sector, which accounts for around 80% of the British economy, didn’t help either.


The increase, which was above forecasts for a more modest increase, took inflation above the bank’s target rate of 2%.


Earlier this month, the bank decreased its main interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.75% — the second in three months — after inflation fell to its lowest level since April 2021.


However, Bank Gov. Andrew Bailey cautioned that rates wouldn’t be falling too fast over the coming months, partly because last month’s budget measures from the new Labour government would likely see prices rise by more than they would otherwise have done. Rate-setters will meet once more this year, on Dec. 19, by which time they will be armed with more monthly inflation readings.


Central banks worldwide dramatically increased borrowing costs from near zero during the coronavirus pandemic when prices started to shoot up, first as a result of supply chain issues and then because of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine which pushed up energy costs.



As inflation rates have fallen from multidecade highs, the central banks have started cutting interest rates, though few, if any, economists think that rates will fall back to the super-low levels that persisted in the years after the global financial crisis of 2008-9.


Recent developments have scaled back expectations of rapid cuts from the Bank of England.

In her budget, British Treasury chief Rachel Reeves announced around 70 billion pounds ($90 billion) of extra spending, funded through increased business taxes and borrowing. Economists think that the splurge, coupled with the prospect of businesses cushioning the tax hikes by raising prices, could push inflation higher than it otherwise would have been.


The global inflation outlook has also become more uncertain since Donald Trump was reelected U.S. president. He has indicated that he will cut taxes and introduce tariffs on certain imported goods when he returns to the White House in January. Both policies have the potential to be inflationary both in the U.S. and globally, and thereby keeping interest rates higher than they otherwise would have been.


“While we think the Bank of England will continue to cut rates in 2025, the pace of rate cuts is expected to be slower than previously anticipated, and rates may stay elevated for longer,” said Monica George Michail, an economist at the National Institute for Economic and Social Research, a think tank that now reckons inflation will push above 3% in early 2025.


“This outlook reflects forecasted inflationary pressures stemming from the recently announced budget, in addition to heightened global uncertainty, particularly surrounding the Trump presidency,” she added.

Inflation rose to 2.3% in Europe

 Inflation in the 20 countries that use the euro currency rose in November — but that likely won’t stop the European Central Bank from cutting interest rates as the prospect of new U.S. tariffs from the incoming Trump administration adds to the gloom over weak growth.


The European Union’s harmonized index of consumer prices stood up 2.3% in the year to November, up from 2.0% in October, the EU statistics agency Eurostat reported Friday.


Energy prices fell 1.9% from a year ago, but that was offset by price increases of 3.9% in the services sector, a broad category including haircuts, medical treatment, hotels and restaurants, and sports and entertainment.


Inflation has come down a long way from the peak of 10.6% in October 2022 as the ECB quickly raised rates to cool off price rises. It then started cutting them in June as worries about growth came into sharper focus.

High central bank benchmark rates combat inflation by influencing borrowing costs throughout the economy. Higher rates make buying things on credit — whether a car, a house or a new factory — more expensive and thus reduce demand for goods and take pressure off prices. However, higher rates can also dampen growth.

Growth worries got new emphasis after surveys of purchasing managers compiled by S&P Global showed the eurozone economy was contracting in October. On top of that come concerns about how U.S. trade policy under incoming President Donald Trump, including possible new tariffs, or import taxes on imported goods, might affect Europe’s export-dependent economy. Trump takes office Jan. 20.



The eurozone’s economic output is expected to grow 0.8% for all of this year and 1.3% next year, according to the European Commission’s most recent forecast.


All that has meant the discussion about the Dec. 12 ECB meeting has focused not on whether the Frankfurt-based bank’s rate council will cut rates, but by how much. Market discussion has included the possibility of a larger than usual half-point cut in the benchmark rate, currently 3.25%.


Inflation in Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy, held steady at 2.4%. That “will strengthen opposition against a 50 basis point cut,” said Carsten Brzeski, global chief of macro at ING bank, using financial jargon for a half-percentage-point cut.


The ECB sets interest rate policy for the European Union member countries that have joined the euro currency.

Interest Rate to 21%

Central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina said that inflation is expected to double the bank’s target of an annual 4% and emphasized that the bank remains committed to bringing it down to the targeted level.

MOSCOW (Micky) — Russia’s central bank on Friday raised its key interest rate by two percentage points to a record-high 21% in an effort to stem growing inflation as massive government spending on the military amid the fighting in Ukraine strains the economy’s capacity to produce goods and services and drives up workers’ wages.


The central bank said in a statement that “growth in domestic demand is still significantly outstripping the capabilities to expand the supply of goods and services.” Inflation, the statement said, “is running considerably above the Bank of Russia’s July forecast,” and “inflation expectations continue to increase.” It held out the prospect of more rate increases in December.


Russia’s economy continues to show growth as a result of booming oil export revenues and a hike in government spending, the bulk of which goes to the military as the conflict in Ukraine has dragged into a third year. That has fueled inflation, which the central bank has tried to combat with higher rates that make it more expensive to borrow and spend on goods, in theory relieving pressure on prices.


Central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina said that inflation is expected to double the bank’s target of an annual 4% and emphasized that the bank remains committed to bringing it down to the targeted level.


Nabiullina noted that inflation has overshot the goals because of increased government spending and lenient banking regulations that encouraged commercial banks to offer more loans. Years of price growth that exceeded the targets have fueled high inflationary expectations among consumers, she added.



“There is a high inertia of inflationary expectations as the inflation has exceeded the target level for four years,” Nabiullina said. “The more inflation exceeds the targets, the less people and companies believe that it could fall back to low levels.”


This is the highest key interest rate in Russia since it was introduced in 2013 and effectively replaced the refinancing rate, a similar instrument. The previous high was in February 2022, when the central bank raised the rates to a then-unprecedented 20% in a desperate bid to shore up the ruble in response to crippling Western sanctions that came after the Kremlin sent troops into Ukraine.


Russia’s economy grew 4.4% in the second quarter of 2024, with unemployment low at 2.4%. Factories are largely running at full speed, and an increasing number of them are focusing on weapons and other military gear. Domestic producers are also stepping in to fill the gaps left by a drop in imports that have been affected by Western sanctions and foreign companies’ decisions to stop doing business in Russia.


Government revenues are supported by economic growth and by continuing exports of oil and gas with less-than-airtight sanctions and a $60 price cap imposed by Western governments on Russian oil. The cap is enforced by barring Western insurers and shippers from handling oil priced over the cap. But Russia has been able to evade the price cap by lining up its own fleet of tankers without Western insurance, and it earned some $17 billion in oil revenues in July.


Chris Weafer, CEO at Macro-Advisory Ltd. consultancy, noted that with the rate hike the central bank wants to raise its “concern about the imbalances that emerged in the economy” that could lead to “serious problems down the road that could even trigger maybe a crisis or a recession.”


He noted that the booming defense spending, with over a third of next year’s budget allocated to the military-industrial complex, has driven economic growth along with soaring consumer spending but also deepened imbalances in the economy.


Labor shortages resulting from a decrease in population and exacerbated by workers leaving factory jobs to join the military have driven a massive increase in wages and fueled a consumer boom. “The central bank is trying to keep the interest rates as high as possible to try and cool that because they warn of the overheating in the consumer economy, which of course can destabilize the economy before too long,” Weafer said.


He described the rate hike as “not so much a cry for help, but a scream of pain from the central bank,” sending a signal to the government that the current high level of spending on military issues can’t continue indefinitely.

Trudeau flies to Florida to meet with Trump


 


Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau flew to Florida on Friday to have dinner with President-elect Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago club after Trump threatened to impose sweeping tariffs on Canadian products.


Trump threatened to impose tariffs on products from Canada and Mexico if they don’t stop what he called the flow of drugs and migrants across their borders. He said he would impose a 25% tax on all products entering the U.S. from Canada and Mexico as one of his first executive orders.


A person familiar with the details called it a “positive wide-ranging dinner that lasted three hours.” The official, who was not authorized to speak publicly and spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity, said topics included trade, border security, fentanyl, defense, Ukraine, NATO, China and pipelines, as well as the the Group of Seven meeting in Canada next year.

Northern California

 


A major storm moving through Northern California on Nov. 21 toppled trees and dropped heavy snow and record amounts of rain after damaging homes.

Killing two people and knocking out power to hundreds of thousands of customers in the Pacific Northwest. Forecasters warned the risk of flash flooding and rockslides would continue. Scores of flights in and out of San Francisco’s airport were canceled.

In Washington, more than 320,000 people—most of them in the Seattle area—were still without power Nov. 21 as crews worked to clear streets of electrical lines, fallen branches and debris.

Meanwhile, on the East Coast, where rare wildfires have raged, New York and New Jersey welcomed much-needed rain that could ease the fire danger for the rest of the year.

The National Weather Service extended a flood watch into Nov. 23 for areas North of San Francisco as the region was inundated by the strongest atmospheric river—a long and wide plume of moisture that forms over an ocean and flows through the sky over land—

So far this season. The storm system roared ashore Nov. 19 as a “bomb cyclone,” unleashing winds that brought down trees and left two dead in Washington.

This satellite image taken, Nov. 19, and provided by NOAA, shows weather gathering in northern California and the Pacific Northwest. Photo: NOAA via AP

Up to 16 inches of rain was forecast in southwestern Oregon and the northern counties of California through Nov. 22. The Sonoma County Airport, in wine country North of San Francisco, received 6.92 inches of rain Nov. 20, breaking a record dating to 1998.

In nearby Forestville, one person was hurt when a tree fell on a house. Small landslides were reported across California’s North Bay region, including one on State Route 281 on Nov. 20 that caused a car crash, according to Marc Chenard, a weather service meteorologist.

Rain slowed somewhat but “persistent heavy rain will enter the picture again by Nov. 22,  morning,” the weather service office in San Francisco said on X. “We are not done!”

Dangerous flash flooding, rockslides and debris flows were possible, especially where hillsides were loosened by recent wildfires, officials warned. Scott Rowe, a hydrologist with the weather service in Sacramento, said so far the ground has been able to absorb the rain in California’s Butte and Tehama counties where the Park Fire burned over the summer.

“It’s not necessarily how much rain falls; it’s how fast the rain falls,” Rowe said Nov. 21.

Northern Mendocino and southern Humboldt counties received anywhere from 4 to 8 inches  of rain in the last 48 hours, and the same amounts were expected over the next 48 hours, California forecasters said Nov. 21. Wind gusts could top 50 mph.

The storm system, which first hit the Pacific Northwest on Nov. 19, reached the status of “ bomb cyclone,” which occurs when a cyclone intensifies rapidly.

A winter storm watch was in place for the northern Sierra Nevada above 3,500 feet (1,066 meters), where 15 inches of snow was possible over two days. Wind gusts could top 75 mph in mountain areas, forecasters said.

The storm had already dumped more than a foot of snow along the Cascades by Nov. 20, evening, according to the weather service. Forecasters warned of blizzard and whiteout conditions and near impossible travel at pass level.

In Washington, there were more than 320,000 power outage reports Nov. 21, morning from strong winds and rain on Nov. 19, night according to poweroutage.us.

“We haven’t had a storm like this since January of 2012,” said Mary Kipp, president of Puget Sound Energy, which serves over 1.2 million electric customers in the state. She estimated Nov. 21 that it would be at least a few days for full restoration.

Falling trees struck homes and littered roads across western Washington, killing at least two people. One woman in Lynnwood was killed when a large tree fell on a homeless encampment, while another woman in Bellevue was killed when a tree fell on a home.

More than a dozen schools were closed in the Seattle area Nov. 20 and some opted to extend those closures through Nov. 21.

In Enumclaw, East of Seattle, residents were cleaning up after their town clocked the highest winds in the state on the night of Nov. 19: 74 mph.

Resident Sophie Keene said the powerful gusts caused transformers to blow out around town. “Things were exploding, like, everywhere,” Keene told the Seattle Times. “Like the transformers over by the park. One blew big, it looked like fireworks just going off.”

In California, there were reports of about 9,000 power outages on the morning of Nov. 21, down from more than 20,000 on the night of Nov. 20.

In Northern California, only 50 vehicles per hour were allowed through part of northbound Interstate 5 from 10 miles North of Redding to 21 miles South of Yreka due to snow, according to the state’s Department of Transportation.

About 150 flights were delayed and another two dozen were canceled early Nov. 21 at San Francisco International Airport, after hundreds were delayed and dozens were canceled on Nov. 20, according to tracking service FlightAware.

The weather service issued a flood watch for parts of southwestern Oregon through Nov. 22 evening, while rough winds and seas temporarily halted a ferry route in northwestern Washington between Port Townsend and Coupeville.

Parched areas of the Northeast got a much needed shot of precipitation Nov. 21, providing a bit of respite in a region plagued by wildfires and dwindling water supplies. More than two inches of rain was expected to fall by the morning of Nov. 23 in areas North of New York City, with snow mixed in at some higher elevations.

“Any rainfall is going to be significant at this point,” said Brian Ciemnecki, a weather service meteorologist in New York City, where the first drought warning in 22 years was issued this week. “Is it going to break the drought? No, we’re going to need more rain than that.” 

Venus, Serena Williams and Nigeria

 On their first visit to Nigeria, Serena and Venus Williams wanted to inspire local kids to set their goals high.

“We were really able to break the mold and win a lot of Grand Slams and a lot of tournaments and not only that, but kind of change the face of tennis,” Serena said Oct. 31 before an exhibition match against her sister in Lagos two days later.


“We were able to break the mold in a sport that was really dominated by White people … it doesn’t matter what your background is and where you come from. If you have dreams, if you have goals, that’s all that really matters.”

The sisters, accompanied by their mother Oracene Price, were in Nigeria’s largest city for a week.

The sisters swatted tennis balls with local children at a private club on Ikoyi Island, home to diplomats and many of the nation’s wealthy. If they have their way, the sisters will be hitting tennis balls for at least another four years, all the way to the 2016 Rio Olympics.

“It’s our main goal,” said the 31-year-old Serena, a three-time Olympic doubles gold medalist with Venus. “We were talking … about how we can’t wait to get to Rio. And obviously, bearing that we’re both healthy, that’s our goal to be there.”

Venus, who is 32, agreed: “That’s what we’ve begun preparing for.”

Venus and Serena have teamed to win 13 Grand Slam doubles titles and won Olympic gold in doubles in 2000, 2008 and 2012. Serena also won the singles gold this year, while Venus won it in 2000.

Serena, who beat Maria Sharapova 6-4, 6-3 to win the WTA Championships final in Istanbul, is ranked No. 3 in the world. Venus, diagnosed last year with an autoimmune disease that causes fatigue, has struggled with illnesses and injuries in recent months and is ranked No. 24. 

Survive Trump

 

“If they do these things when the wood is green, what will happen when it is dry?” (Luke 23:31)


Before November 5, millions of us were already struggling with poverty, extreme storms, immigration nightmares, anti-trans bills, criminalized reproductive health, the demolition of homeless encampments, the silencing of freedom of speech on campuses… and, of course, the list only goes on and on. Since Donald Trump and JD Vance were elected, more of us find ourselves in a state of fear and trembling, given the reports of transgender people attacked in broad daylight, misogynist social media posts threatening “your body, my choice,” Black college students receiving notes about returning to enslavement, and the unhoused beaten and battered.


In the wake of the election results, there has also been a flurry of activity in anticipation of the extremist policies Donald Trump and crew are likely to put in place to more deeply harm the nation’s most vulnerable: mass Zoom meetings with MoveOn, the Working Families Party, Indivisible, and more; interfaith prayer services for healing and justice organized by various denominations and ecumenical groups; local actions pulled together by the Women’s March; community meetings with the hashtag #weareworthfightingfor; and calls to mobilize for inauguration day and beyond.


Although some were surprised by the election outcome, there were others who saw it coming and offered comfort and solidarity to their communities even before the results were in. On the eve of election night, a public elementary school in West Harlem, New York sent this message to its families:


We know emotions are running high. Today, and last week at school, many conversations in PreK through 5th grade were had and heard regarding how voting happens… worry from some students about whether they will be safe after tomorrow… We assured all children that our school, no matter what, will always be a safe place for them and their families… It is so hard feeling that this election and its outcomes could have such a huge impact on any person based on their status, race, gender identity, sexuality, religion, country of origin, and so many other identities which make our school so beautifully diverse…It is not easy being a parent/caregiver on a good day, let alone when it feels like times are so turbulent and uncertain and even, scary. We are here for you, parents, caregivers, and we are in this together. No matter what!

That message came from a Title 1 school, nearly 60% of whose students qualify for free school meals. If Trump keeps up with his promise to close the Department of Education, tens of thousands of public schools across the country, like the one in West Harlem, could lose critical funding and programs that sustain tens of millions of students and their families—that is, if public education isn’t completely privatized in some grim fashion.


Of course, not all communities approached Trump’s election with such trepidation. On November 6, the Bloomberg Billionaire Index reported that the 10 richest men in the world added $64 billion to their own wealth after Donald Trump was declared the winner of the 2024 election. Since then, the stock market has had some of its best days in recent history.


An Impoverished Democracy

After inciting an insurrection at the Capitol; being indicted in state and federal court; convicted of 34 felony counts; and using racist, sexist, and hateful rhetoric prolifically, Donald Trump has gone down in history as the only convicted felon to become an American president, receiving more than 74 million votes and securing 312 electoral college votes. Although an undisputed victory, the outcome relied heavily on a weakened democracy and a polarized economy, drawing on discontent and disarray to regain political power.


Indeed, although Donald Trump has the distinct “honor” of being the first Republican to win the popular vote in 20 years, he has done so after more than a decade of assaults on voting rights, unleashed in 2013 when the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act. Over the next 10 years, nearly 100 laws were passed in 29 states that restrict voting access, from omnibus bills to polling location closures, limits on mail-in and absentee voting, harsh ID requirements (including eliminating student ID cards as a valid form of identification), and more. Since 2020, at least 30 states have enacted 78 restrictive laws, 63 of which were in effect in dozens of states during this election. And in 2024 alone, nine states enacted 18 restrictive voting laws, alongside purges of thousands of voters in the days leading up to November 5.


In addition to such prolonged attacks on the right to vote, widespread poverty and economic precarity have become defining characteristics of our impoverished democracy: More than two of every five of us are poor or low-income, and three in five are living paycheck-to-paycheck without affordable healthcare, decent homes, or quality education.


If the poor and our democracy were suffering before Trump was reelected, what will happen now?


According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2024 report Poverty in the United States: 2023, 41% of this country’s population has a household income either under the poverty threshold or just above it, precariously living one emergency away from financial ruin. That translates into approximately 137 million people who are struggling every day to make it through without falling even further behind. Those tens of millions of people include a disproportionate percentage of people of color, including 56.5% of Black people (23.4 million), 61.4% of Latino people (40.2 million), 55.8% of Indigenous people (1.4 million), and 38% of Asian people (8.5 million). They also include nearly one-third of white people, 60 million, and nearly half (49%) of all children in the United States. Such rates are slightly higher for women (42.6%) than for men (39.8%), including 44.6% for elderly women.


When tallied up, these numbers mirror pre-pandemic conditions in 2018 and 2019, during which poverty and low-income rates stood at about 40%, impacting 140 million people in every county, state, and region of the country.


In other words, in this sick reality of ours, poverty is clearly anything but a marginal experience—and yet, as in the last election, it’s repeatedly minimalized and dismissed in our nation’s politics. In the process, the daily lives of nearly one-third of the electorate are discounted, because among that vast impoverished population, there are approximately 80 million eligible voters described by political strategists as among the most significant blocs of voters to win over.


Case in point: In 2020 and 2021, there was a significant dip in the overall number of people who were poor or low-income. Covid-19 pandemic programs that offered financial help also expanded access to healthcare, food stamps, free school meals, and unemployment insurance, while monthly support from the Child Tax Credit lifted over 20 million people out of poverty and insecurity while increasing protection from evictions and foreclosures. Such programs made millions of people more economically secure than they had been in years.


Nonetheless, instead of extending and improving them and potentially gaining the trust of millions of poor and low-income voters, all of these anti-poverty policies were ended by early 2023. By 2024, not only had the gains against poverty been swiftly erased, but more than 25 million people had been kicked off Medicaid, including millions in battleground states like Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In that same time period, the Biden administration approved an $895 billion budget for war and another $95 billion in additional aid to Ukraine and Israel.


Rather than speaking to such economic crises or pledging to address such pervasive insecurity, over the course of the election season, the Democrats emphasized a rising GDP, a strong job market, and important infrastructure investments made in recent years—macro-economic issues that had little effect on the material well-being of the majority of Americans, especially those struggling with the rising cost of living. For instance, pre-election polling among Latino voters showed that three-quarters (78%) of them had experienced an increase in food and basic living expenses; two-thirds (68%) emphasized the high costs of rent and housing; and nearly three in five (57%) said that their wages weren’t high enough to meet their cost of living or they had to take second jobs to make ends meet.


When you consider the grim final results of election 2024, such realities—and the decision of the Democrats to functionally disregard poor and low-income voters—should be taken into account.


When the Wood Is Green/When the Wood Is Dry

With just over 74 million votes (to Harris’s 71 million), among a voting-eligible population of more than 230 million, Trump actually received only one-third of the possible votes in this election. Nearly 85 million eligible voters simply chose not to turn out. In reality, he won’t enter office with a popular mandate.


However, buoyed by a Republican-controlled Senate and House of Representatives, his second term brings with it a profound sense of dread, based on a heightened awareness of the policies that Trump 2.0 is likely to carry forward (laid bare in the Heritage Foundation’s nearly 900-page pre-election Project 2025 mandate). From mass deportations to assaults on social-welfare programs, housing programs, reproductive rights, LGBTQ+ families, and public education, millions of people could be thrown into crisis, with alarmingly fewer ways to resist or express dissent, especially given Trump’s long-time willingness to use military force to quell protest. With the passage of the “non-profit killer bill” in the House of Representatives (before Trump even takes office), the infrastructure of resistance is also under threat. Add to all this: Trump has already started talking about overhauling the Medicaid and food-stamp programs that benefit at least 70 million poor and low-income people to offset the costs of extending tax cuts to billionaires and corporations.


All of this brings us to the Bible.


During the fall of the Roman Empire, poor and dispossessed communities banded together to build a movement where everyone would be accepted and all needs would be met.


Poverty was both severe and all too common in Jesus’ day. Ninety percent of the population in the Roman empire was believed to have been poor, with a class of expendable low-wage workers (to which some historians suggest Jesus belonged) so poor that many only lived remarkably brief lives in utter precarity. Shifts in farming and fishing had catapulted some people into great new wealth but left the vast majority struggling for basics like food and housing. Many of the impoverished subjects of the Roman Empire joined political and religious renewal movements, which took various forms and used various tactics to resist these and other injustices.


Some readers may be familiar with the decadence and violence of the Roman Emperor Nero. Popularly known as the anti-Christ, he came to power after Jesus walked the Earth, but as is clear from his nickname, had a grave impact on many of Jesus’ followers. Nero was, of course, the one who was accused of “fiddling while Rome is burning”—holding lavish banquets, using and abusing (even possibly raping) some of his poor subjects, persecuting Christians, and bringing about the decline and eventual fall of the Roman empire through his authoritarian rule and decadent overspending.


As detailed in Luke’s Gospel, during the last week of his life, Jesus turned to the people of Jerusalem and wept. He described the profound suffering they had been enduring and instructed them to brace themselves for the suffering still to come, saying, “For if they do these things when the wood is green, what will happen when it is dry?” This line foreshadows Jesus’ death on the cross (an execution reserved for those who dared to challenge the Roman Empire and its emperors), the destruction of the Jerusalem Temple, and the persecution of his poor followers who continued to practice mutual solidarity, even after that crucifixion.


Writing decades later, the author of Luke’s gospel may have been offering a warning about emperors like Nero that would foreshadow later times. Luke had the benefit of hindsight in the wake of Jesus’ life and death in which there was not exactly a lot of good news about the canceling of debts, the release of those enslaved to unjust structures, or the prosperity of the poor (of the sort Jesus had called for when he started his public ministry). Rather, those who dared to stand up to Rome were being persecuted, while so many others were being overworked and underpaid in a society that was faltering.


Two thousand years later, this sounds all too familiar, doesn’t it?


Looking at Donald Trump’s new appointments and his (and his cronies’) plans for “making America great again,” you really have to wonder: If the poor and our democracy were suffering before Trump was reelected, what will happen now? If, amid relative abundance, the poor were already being abandoned, what will indeed occur when those with the power to distribute that abundance, and protect our air, water, and land, openly disdain the “least of these,” who are most of us, and instead favor the wealthy and powerful?


Donald Trump may liken himself to Jesus in his media appearances and election rallies, but his words and actions actually resemble those of Nero and other Roman emperors. With claims that “I alone can fix your problems” and bread-and-circus rallies like the pre-election one he held at Madison Square Garden, perhaps a more accurate parallel with the incoming administration may, in fact, be Nero and his cronies who stood against Jesus and his mission to end poverty.


If so, then for those committed to the biblical call for a safe and abundant life for all, such times demand that we focus on building the strength and power of the people. During the fall of the Roman Empire, poor and dispossessed communities banded together to build a movement where everyone would be accepted and all needs would be met. Don’t you hear echoes of that in the words and actions of that school in West Harlem, so deeply concerned about its families, and the community actions proclaiming that “we are worth fighting for”?


Such communities of yesteryear knew a truth that is all the more important today: Lives and livelihoods will be saved, if at all, from below, rather than on high. As we approach a new year and the inauguration of Donald Trump (on Martin Luther King Day, no less), let us take to heart a favorite slogan of the authors: “When we lift from the bottom, everybody rises.” This is the only way forward.





Imprisonment set ‘Dangerous Precedent’


In his first public statement since being released from prison in June, WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange urged European lawmakers to take action to protect journalists from being prosecuted for their reporting work, warning that his yearslong case is directly tied to self-censorship and the chilling of press freedom.

Assange spoke to the Committee on Legal Affairs and Human Rights (PACE) at the Council of Europe, which includes members from across the continent, in Strasbourg, France, and warned that current legal protections for journalists and whistleblowers “were not effective in any remotely reasonable time,” as evidenced by the 14 years he spent in prison or otherwise in confinement for his work.

“I want to be totally clear,” said Assange. “I am not free today because the system worked. I am free today because after years of incarceration I pleaded guilty to journalism. I pleaded guilty to seeking information from a source.”

Assange was released from Belmarsh Prison in London in June after being incarcerated there for five years. His release was secured when he agreed to plead guilty to one felony count of illegally obtaining and disclosing national security materials in a deal with the U.S. government.

He had spent years fighting U.S. efforts to extradite him, threatening him with a sentence of up to 170 years in a federal prison, as punishment for state secrets, WikiLeaks published.

The media organization reported on a series of leaks provided by former U.S. Army soldier Chelsea Manning regarding the Army’s killing of unarmed civilians in Iraq, as well as publishing diplomatic cables.

“I was formally convicted by a foreign power for asking, for receiving and publishing truthful information about that power, while I was in Europe,” said Assange, who is Australian, on Oct. 1. “The fundamental issue is simple: Journalists should not be prosecuted for doing their jobs.”

Assange told PACE members that he had believed that Article 10 of European Convention of Human Rights, which protects the right to freedom of expression and freedom of the media, would protect him from prosecution.


“Similarly, looking at the U.S. First Amendment to its Constitution … no publisher had ever been prosecuted for publishing classified information from the United States,” said Assange. “I expected some kind of harassment legal process. I was pre-prepared to fight for that.”

He continued:

“My naiveté was in believing in the law. When push comes to shove, laws are just pieces of paper, and they can be reinterpreted for political expediency.

“They are the rules made by the ruling class more broadly. And if those rules don’t suit what it wants to do, it reinterprets them or hopefully changes them.

In the case of the United States, we angered one of the constituent powers of the United States. The intelligence sector … It was powerful enough to push for a reinterpretation of the U.S. Constitution.”

He said he ultimately “chose freedom over unrealizable justice,” as the U.S. was intent on imprisoning him for the rest of his life unless he entered the guilty plea.

Assange added that his case set a “dangerous precedent,” and that since his arrest he has observed “more impunity, more secrecy, more retaliation for telling the truth, and more self-censorship.”

“It is hard not to draw a line from the U.S. government crossing the Rubicon by internationally criminalizing journalism to the chilled climate for freedom of expression now,” said Assange.

His comments echoed the findings of Reporters Without Borders (RSF), which published its annual press freedom index in May. The group found that “in the Americas, the inability of journalists to cover subjects related to organized crime, corruption, or the environment for fear of reprisals poses a major problem.”

The U.S. fell 10 places in the annual ranking, with citing “open antagonism from political officials” such as Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, “including calls to jail journalists.” RSF also cited the government’s pursuit of Assange’s extradition.

In Europe, said Assange Oct. 1, “the criminalization of news-gathering activities is a threat to investigative journalism everywhere.”

Abolish Consumer Agency



President-elect Donald Trump's billionaire appointment to help lead the so-called Department of Government Efficiency said Tuesday that he wants to eliminate an agency that one consumer advocate described as "a model of efficiency and cost-effectiveness."


Tesla CEO Elon Musk wrote on X, the social media platform he owns, that he wants to "delete" the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), which has returned nearly $20 billion to members of the U.S. public in the form of monetary compensation, canceled debt, and other relief since its creation in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.


"There are too many duplicative regulatory agencies," Musk declared.


Robert Weissman, co-president of the consumer advocacy group Public Citizen, countered in a statement that the CFPB "was created specifically because none of the overlapping financial regulatory agencies prioritized consumer protection."


"But there's no reason to think facts or evidence have anything to do with Musk's views," said Weissman. "Asking the world's richest person, with a direct interest in a wide range of business lines, to run a project to review the federal government's overall operations is absurd and fundamentally corrupt—and this issue highlights exactly why."


Weissman noted that Musk has "reportedly obtained money transmitter licenses for X in more than three dozen states and still appears determined to turn X into an 'everything app' based around a payment service," an effort that "would be subject to regulation by the CFPB."


"In fact, the CFPB has just finalized a rule to supervise large tech companies offering digital funds transfer and payment wallet apps," he continued. "In short, Musk is calling for elimination of the consumer protection regulator over a business line he seems poised to enter... This is systemic corruption at a grand and intolerable scale."




Building Peace



Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Tuesday sharply criticized U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's threat to impose a 25% tariff on all imported goods from Canada and Mexico, calling the proposal a potentially disastrous distraction from meaningful solutions to drug trafficking and mass migration.


"Migration and drug consumption in the United States cannot be addressed through threats or tariffs," Sheinbaum, a member of Mexico's leftist Morena party, wrote in a letter to Trump. "What is needed is cooperation and mutual understanding to tackle these significant challenges."


Sheinbaum warned that if Trump follows through with his threat, "there will be a response in kind, until we put at risk our shared enterprises," echoing economists' concerns that such sweeping tariffs could result in higher prices for consumers, job losses, and a damaging trade war. Companies in the U.S. are already signaling that they would use tariffs on imports as a justification to raise consumer prices.


"Among Mexico's main exporters to the United States are General Motors, Stellantis, and Ford Motor Company, which arrived in Mexico 80 years ago," Sheinbaum wrote. "Why impose a tariff that would jeopardize them? Such a measure would be unacceptable and would lead to inflation and job losses in both the United States and Mexico."


"Tragically, it is in our country that lives are lost to the violence resulting from meeting the drug demand in yours."


Sheinbaum's letter to Trump was made public hours after the U.S. president-elect took to his social media platform, Truth Social, to fearmonger about a supposedly "unstoppable" migrant "caravan coming from Mexico."


Trump pledged to "sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States" and said such tariffs would remain in place until Mexico and Canada—the nation's largest trading partners—halt the flow of migrants and drugs, particularly fentanyl, into the U.S.


"Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem," Trump wrote. "We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!"


In her response, Sheinbaum wrote that Trump "may not be aware" that Mexico "has developed a comprehensive policy to assist migrants from different parts of the world who cross our territory en route to the southern border of the United States." Sheinbaum noted that the policy helped produce a major decline in migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border over the past year.


"For these reasons, migrant caravans no longer arrive at the border," the Mexican president wrote. "Even so, it is clear that we must work together to create a new labor mobility model that is necessary for your country, as well as address the root causes that compel families to leave their homes out of necessity."


"If even a small percentage of what the United States allocates to war were instead dedicated to building peace and fostering development, it would address the underlying causes of human mobility," she added.


Sheinbaum went on to write that Mexico has "consistently expressed its willingness" to help stop fentanyl and weapons from entering the United States through its southern border.


"You must also be aware of the illegal trafficking of firearms into my country from the United States," she wrote. "Seventy percent of the illegal weapons seized from criminals in Mexico come from your country. We do not produce these weapons, nor do we consume synthetic drugs. Tragically, it is in our country that lives are lost to the violence resulting from meeting the drug demand in yours."


Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau offered a far more vague response to Trump's tariff threat, telling reporters that he had a "good conversation" with the U.S. president-elect following his Truth Social post.


"This is a relationship that we know takes a certain amount of working on, and that's what we'll do," Trudeau said.

Plastic Treaty


 





Despite the majority support of promising proposals for global product and chemical bans, the latest draft treaty text offers nothing of use.

As negotiations for a Global Plastics Treaty enter their final stretch in Busan, South Korea, national delegates are sleepwalking into a treaty that will not be worth the paper it will be written on.

The current treaty draft text, shared with delegates on Friday, excludes key civil society demands, such as a clear and binding limit on plastic production and a ban or phaseout of the most dangerous plastics and chemicals.

Despite the majority support of promising proposals for a strong and binding treaty on plastic pollution, what we have currently in this text is far from what we need.

A weak treaty based on voluntary measures will break under the weight of the plastic crisis and will lock us into an endless cycle of unnecessary harm.

Consumer Protection

 


Consumer advocates applauded last month as the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau finalized a rule aimed at making it easier for people to switch financial institutions if they’re unhappy with a bank’s service, without the bank retaining their personal data—

But on Nov. 15, more than a dozen groups warned the CFPB that major Wall Street firms are trying to stop Americans from benefiting from the rule.

Several advocacy groups, led by the Demand Progress Education Fund, wrote to CFPB director Rohit Chopra warning that major banks—including JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Citi, TD Bank, and Wells Fargo—sit on the board of the Financial Data Exchange (FDX), which has applied to the bureau for standard-setting body (SSB) status, which would give it authority over what is commonly known as the “open banking rule.”

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Standard-setting authority for the banks would present a major conflict of interest, said the groups.

The banks are also on the board of the Bank Policy Institute, which promptly filed what the consumer advocates called a “frivolous lawsuit” to block the open banking rule when it was introduced last month, claiming it will keep banks from protecting customer data.

At a panel discussion in November, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan also said the open banking rule, by requiring financial firms to unlock a consumer’s financial data and transfer it to another provider for free, would cause “chaos” and amplify concerns over fraud.

The groups wrote on Nov. 15 that big banks want to continue to “maintain their dominance by making it unduly difficult for consumers to switch institutions.”

“The presence of these organizations on both the FDX and BPI boards undermines the credibility of FDX and presents various concerns relating to conflict of interest, interlocking directorate, and antitrust law,” they wrote.

Upon introducing the finalized rule last month, Chopra said the action would “give people more power to get better rates and service on bank accounts, credit cards, and more” and help those who are “stuck in financial products with lousy rates and service.”

The coalition of consumer advocacy groups—including Public Citizen, the American Economic Liberties Project, and Americans for Financial Reform—urged Chopra to reject FDX’s application for standard-setting authority so long as the banks remain on its board.

“It would be a flagrant conflict of interest for the same banks who are suing to block the open banking rule because it threatens their market dominance to also be in charge of implementing it,” said Demand Progress Education Fund corporate power director Emily Peterson-Cassin.

“The American people are fed up with Wall Street controlling every aspect of their lives and the open banking rule is an opportunity to give all of us some financial freedom. The CFPB must stop this ploy by the biggest banks to keep us trapped under their thumbs.”

The groups called the open banking rule “a historic step forward for the cause of giving consumers true freedom in their financial lives.”

“For this reason, it is imperative that SSB status not be granted to an organization whose board members are, either directly or through a trade association they are participating in, suing the CFPB to stop the rules from taking effect.

Particularly when such members may be ethically conflicted from such dual participation,” said the groups. “By rejecting SSB status for FDX or any other organization with similar conflicts of interest pertaining to Section 1033, the CFPB will help prevent big banks from sabotaging open banking rules.”

Friday, November 29, 2024

EARTH HAS CHANGED

 



Twenty years have passed since world leaders offered an unconditional surrender to alien forces.... the planet's last line of defense, was left decimated and scattered. Now the aliens rule Earth, building shining cities that promise a brilliant future for humanity on the surface, while concealing a sinister agenda below and eliminating all who dissent from their new order. Only those who live at the edges of the world have a margin of freedom. Here, a force gathers once again to stand up for humanity... 

Original Black

 


When I spoke to the students at Tuskegee University on March 22, 2013, I said: “You are more than who you think you are … Because of ‘who’ you are, you are in danger.

So tonight, I want to expose the danger, and by God’s Grace, give you the guidance to be exactly what I said you are: ‘The Seminal Fluid’ of The Kingdom of God.”

Tuskegee University has received high amounts of government funding for research and experimentation, the most recent being the HeLa, or “immortal cells” (the oldest, most commonly used human cell line), which are cancer cells used in testing and creating vaccines!

I said at Tuskegee: “Your former slave masters don’t give you money without another purpose beyond what they tell us! …You have to remember history to guide you in the way you think!

It’s all right to think that people have ‘changed’—but you cannot go to sleep; you have to watch to see if the change is real.” For example, in the 1940s the U.S. government experimented by infecting the people of Guatemala with syphilis and gonorrhea and sexually transmitted diseases!

The government has now acknowledged this. On October 1, 2010, the Secretary of Health and Human Services, Kathleen Sebelius, apologized in a statement with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton regarding this HeLa experimentation.

And, brothers and sisters, this is what I’m afraid of; that with the research that is going on in Tuskegee with the HeLa cells, now The Enemy has created genetic weapons that are designed specifically for certain genetic groups—and they are designing different drugs for that same purpose!

Microbiology image Photo: MGN Online

Dr. Jonas Salk used the HeLa cells in producing the polio vaccine; but yet, a contaminant was introduced into the vaccine! Also, it was this HeLa cell that was the carrier of the cancer that was introduced into “SV40” (an abbreviation for “Simian vacuolating virus 40” or “Simian virus 40,”

A polyomavirus that is found in both monkeys and humans) into the polio vaccine; and that’s why the Honorable Elijah Muhammad, in the ’60s, forbade his followers from taking the polio vaccine.

Now they say that 2,000 pounds of HeLa cells have been produced… And they’ve gone all over the world! So instead of these immortal cells being used to curb the rise of cancer, the opposite is true:

Cancer is proliferating all over the world, especially in Third World countries—and especially among the Black man and woman in America. Is this an “accident”?

Why, in the scheme of things, was the syphilis experiment “so important”? Why is the HeLa experiment and research “so important”? Why, in the scheme of things, was this experiment to start at Tuskegee, in Alabama, where Booker T. Washington established the principles

1.) self-reliance, 2.) self-help, 3.) commerce, 4.) industry; and 5.) agriculture—and where George Washington Carver was? And they even told George Washington Carver that he should not marry;

Henrietta Lacks Photo: Facebook

That he should not have any children, because these oppressors did not want to see another “Carver” in a future generation that their children would have to contend with! My question is: What type of research is this, and how will this research benefit us as a people?

Scientists took these cells without asking for permission, and have made millions of dollars off of these cells. And the woman—the Black woman, Henrietta Lacks, from which this immune cell, this great cell was taken—has not received anything, though the world is benefiting from this HeLa cell.

Why Tuskegee? Well, Tuskegee is like a “manger.” A manger is like a trough; it’s a feeder that is made of carved stone, wood or metal construction, and is used to hold food for animals, as in a “stable.”

Jesus was born in a manger … It is not an accident that such greatness has come out of that little city! Tuskegee is a “manger,” it’s a place of feeding ground—a “feeding place” for a people that have been made savage;

That from such an institute, which is now a university, can come that which will civilize not only the Black man and woman of America, but from it, the Honorable Elijah Muhammad saw “a world institution.”

Rising Lion

  As Israel defends itself from an existential threat, the global Jewish community and allies worldwide have an urgent role to play. Israel’...