Cabin Service On Flights

 

Southwest Airlines Passenger Jet

Southwest Airlines says it is ending cabin service earlier on flights, requiring passengers to do the usual pre-landing procedures such as ensuring their seatbelts are fastened and returning their seats to an upright position earlier than before.

Beginning on Dec. 4, a company spokesperson said, flight attendants will start preparing the cabin for landing at an altitude of 18,000 feet (5,486 meters) instead of 10,000 feet (3,048 meters). The change in procedure is designed to “reduce the risk of in-flight turbulence injuries” for crew members and passengers, the company said.

While turbulence-related fatalities are quite rare, injuries have piled up over the years. More than one-third of all airline incidents in the United States from 2009 through 2018 were related to turbulence, and most of them resulted in one or more serious injuries but no damage to the plane, the National Transportation Safety Board reported.

In May, a 73-year old man died on board a Singapore Airlines flight when the plane hit severe turbulence over the Indian Ocean.

The airline had also previously announced other changes.

Starting next year, Southwest will toss out a half-century tradition of “open seating” — passengers picking their own seats after boarding the plane.

Black Friday Shoppers

 Retailers used giveaways and big discounts to reward U.S. shoppers who ventured out for Black Friday even as earlier offers, the prospect of better bargains in the days ahead and the ease of e-commerce drained much of the excitement from the holiday shopping season’s much-hyped kickoff.

Frequent deals throughout the month and more awaiting on Cyber Monday gave consumers less of a reason to squabble over store shelves while trying to get their hands on TVs or toys. But shopping malls and merchants big and small used the day after Thanksgiving to entice customers into physical stores at a time when many prefer to browse and buy online.

Some Target shoppers lined up as early as 11:30 p.m. on Thanksgiving Day to get their hands on an exclusive book devoted to Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour and a bonus edition of her “The Tortured Poets Department: The Anthology” album. Although both will be available purchase online starting Saturday, many locations sold out their supply of the products, the discount retailer said.

At a Target in Southfield, Michigan, a few miles north of Detroit, Marge Evans, 32, used her cellphone to take and send photos of shirts, sweaters and other apparel with Black Friday markdowns. Her shopping cart was full, but she was shopping for an upcoming cruise with her fiance, not Christmas.

“I’ll see what things are looking like the first week in January,” the 32-year-old massage therapist said. “Really, after the holidays are over is when the real deals come through. They get rid of everything.”

Industry analysts observed Black Friday shoppers displaying the same choosy, deal-driven behavior many U.S. consumers exhibited all year while adjusting prices after the period of inflation that started toward the end of the coronavirus pandemic.

At many stores, the huge crowds of Black Fridays past never returned after the pandemic. A Walmart in Germantown, Maryland, had only half of the parking spots filled on Friday morning. Some shoppers were returning items or buying groceries.

Bharatharaj Moruejsan, a 35-year-old software engineer, decided to check out Walmart’s offers because he was jet-lagged after returning from a month-long family vacation to India. He scored an iPad for his 1-year-old daughter for $250, 32% off its original $370 price tag.

“That’s a good deal,” Moruejsan said.

After visiting stores and shopping centers on Long Island, Marshal Cohen, chief retail adviser at market research firm Circana, said that apart from people lining up for Target’s Taylor Swift merchandise, the number of shoppers appeared typical.

“The spreading out of the holidays has created the lack of need and lack of urgency,” said Cohen, who had a 20-person team monitoring crowds nationwide. “This is going to be a long, slow tedious process” of getting shoppers to buy, he said.

Michael Brown, a partner at management consulting firm Kearney, saw no lines at the Westfield Garden State Plaza in Paramus, New Jersey, 10 minutes before the 7 a.m. opening.

“It’s not the old Black Friday that we used to know,” he said.

Retailers that offered at least 40% off drove shoppers’ attention, according to Brown. For example, Forever 21 had 50% to 70% discounts and had lines to the stores, while H&M, which offered 30% discounts, was relatively quiet.

Enough consumers still enjoy holiday shopping in person that Black Friday nonetheless was expected to retain its crown remains the biggest day of the year for retail foot traffic in the U.S., according to retail technology company Sensormatic Solutions.

At Macy’s Herald Square in Manhattan, the setting for the 1947 Christmas movie “Miracle on 34th Street,” a steady stream of shoppers early Friday found some shoes and handbags priced half-off, special occasion dresses marked down by 30%, and 60% off the store’s luxury bedding brand.

Keressa Clark, 50, and her daughter Morghan, 27, who were visiting New York from Wilmington, North Carolina, arrived at 6:15 a.m.

“I am actually shocked to see so many Black Friday deals because so many things are online,” Morghan Clark said.

Karessa Clark, who works as a nurse practitioner, said President-elect Donald Trump’s pending return to the White House made her feel better about the economy. She plans to spend $2,000 this holiday season, about $500 more than a year ago.

Julie Rambo, a retired school teacher, shoved aside her worries about the incoming Trump administration as she shopped with her grandchildren at the Target in Southfield, Michigan.

Rambo, 74, said she was “totally, completely scared of tariffs because I’m still going to need an automobile,” but it was a problem to confront later. As she does each year, she was primarily looking for Christmas gifts through a prison ministry for children with parents who are incarcerated.

“As we’re shopping, we find things for ourselves too,” Rambo said.

Online sales figures from Thanksgiving Day gave retailers a reason to remain hopeful for a lucrative end to the year.

Vivek Pandya, the lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, said consumers spent a record $6.1 billion online Thursday, 8.8% more than on Thanksgiving last year. Bigger-than-expected discounts helped spur spending on electronics, apparel and other categories, Pandya said.

Across the board, Black Friday weekend discounts should peak at 30% on Cyber Monday and then retreat to around 15%, according to Adobe’s research.

Analysts forecast a solid holiday shopping season overall in the U.S., though perhaps not as robust as last year. Retailers were even more under the gun to get shoppers in to buy early and in bulk since there are five fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year.

Shoppers at Lakeside Shopping Center in Metairie, Louisiana, were treated to a glass of champagne and a $50 gift receipt.

“This is a nice touch. I was just talking to my best friend and rehashing over Thanksgiving so this was a nice little treat after that conversation. Everyone needs a little drink,” said Faren Kennedy, a Houston resident who was in town visiting family and wanted to stop at the mall for the nostalgia of Black Friday shopping.

At Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota, some 13,000 people showed up the first hour of its 7 a.m. opening, roughly 1,000 more than a year ago, according to Jill Renslow, the mall’s chief business development and marketing officer.

The mall was on target to exceed the 200,000 Black Friday customer visits it received in 2023, Renslow said. Stores with deep discounts and promotions were the most packed, she said, citing Lego’s giveaway of a free retro record player with a $250 purchase.

Stephen Lebovitz, CEO of CBL Properties, which operates 85 shopping properties, and Bill Taubman, president and chief operating officer of upscale mall landlord Taubman Realty Group, also said customer visits were up.

Black Friday no longer is an American-only sales event. Retailers in Australia, Canada, France, Germany and the U.K. also appealed to holiday shoppers looking to save money.

In India, about 200 Amazon warehouse workers and delivery drivers, rallied Friday in New Delhi, some wearing masks of Amazon chief Jeff Bezos, to demand better wages and working conditions. Similar protests were planned in other countries.

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Kenya 1.5 million years ago

By Albert Ariho 

Eastern Side of Lake Turkana, Kenya

Muddy footprints left on a Kenyan lakeside suggest two of our early human ancestors were nearby neighbors some 1.5 million years ago.

The footprints were left in the mud by two different species “within a matter of hours, or at most days,” said paleontologist Louise Leakey, co-author of the research published Thursday in the journal Science.

Scientists previously knew from fossil remains that these two extinct branches of the human evolutionary tree – called Homo erectus and Paranthropus boisei – lived about the same time in the Turkana Basin.

But dating fossils is not exact. “It’s plus or minus a few thousand years,” said paleontologist William Harcourt-Smith of Lehman College and the American Museum of Natural History in New York, who was not involved in the study.

Yet with fossil footprints, “there’s an actual moment in time preserved,” he said. “It’s an amazing discovery.”

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The tracks of fossil footprints were uncovered in 2021 in what is today Koobi Fora, Kenya, said Leaky, who is based at New York’s Stony Brook University.

Whether the two individuals passed by the eastern side of Lake Turkana at the same time – or a day or two apart – they likely knew of each other’s existence, said study co-author Kevin Hatala, a paleoanthropologist at Chatham University in Pittsburgh.

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“They probably saw each other, probably knew each other was there and probably influenced each other in some way,” he said.

Scientists were able to distinguish between the two species because of the shape of the footprints, which holds clues to the anatomy of the foot and how it’s being used.

H. erectus appeared to be walking similar to how modern humans walk – striking the ground heel first, then rolling weight over the ball of the foot and toes and pushing off again.

The other species, which was also walking upright, was moving “in a different way from anything else we’ve seen before, anywhere else,” said co-author Erin Marie Williams-Hatala, a human evolutionary anatomist at Chatham.

Among other details, the footprints suggest more mobility in their big toe, compared to H. erectus or modern humans, said Hatala.

Our common primate ancestors probably had hands and feet adapted for grasping branches, but over time the feet of human ancestors evolved to enable walking upright, researchers say.

The new study adds to a growing body of research that implies this transformation to bipedalism – walking on two feet — didn’t happen at a single moment, in a single way.

Rather, there may have been a variety of ways that early humans learned to walk, run, stumble and slide on prehistoric muddy slopes.

“It turns out, there are different gait mechanics – different ways of being bipedal,” said Harcourt-Smith.

Scientists Reconstruct Dinosaur

 

Poland during Early Jurassic Period

Using fossilized feces and vomit samples from Poland, scientists have reconstructed how dinosaurs came to dominate the Earth millions of years ago.

Researchers aren’t sure whether dinosaurs’ rise over the course of 30 million years happened because of luck, skill, climate or some combination. But they came away knowing this: “It was not a sudden thing,” said study co-author Martin Qvarnström from Uppsala University.

The new study, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, analyzed hundreds of dino droppings to reconstruct who was eating whom 200 million years ago.

The first dinosaurs were go-getters, Qvarnström said, eating whatever they could — including insects, fish and plants.

When climate conditions changed, they were quick to adapt. Plant-eating dinosaurs, for example, ate a greater variety of greens than other vegetarians of the time, so it was easier to expand their palates when wetter conditions gave rise to new plant species.

Since the study’s findings were limited to Polish fossils, Qvarnström said he’d like to see if their ideas hold steady against fossil records from around the world.

It’s not uncommon for scientists to study ancient fecal matter to understand creatures of the past, said Emma Dunne, a paleobiologist at the University of Erlangen-Nuremberg. But fossilized feces can resemble blobs or chunks of rock, and they are not always found near fossils of the animal that made them — which makes it hard for scientists to know where they came from.

In this study, researchers found fish scales, insect bits and bone shards nestled within the droppings.

“They are a really unassuming, quite plain part of the background,” said Dunne, who was not involved with the new research. “But they hold so much delicate, fine information.”

Tadpole Fossil

 

Scientists have discovered the oldest-known fossil of a giant tadpole that wriggled around over 160 million years ago.

The new fossil, found in Argentina, surpasses the previous ancient record holder by about 20 million years.

Imprinted in a slab of sandstone are parts of the tadpole’s skull and backbone, along with impressions of its eyes and nerves.

“It’s not only the oldest tadpole known, but also the most exquisitely preserved,” said study author Mariana Chuliver, a biologist at Buenos Aires’ Maimonides University.

Researchers know frogs were hopping around as far back as 217 million years ago. But exactly how and when they evolved to begin as tadpoles remains unclear.

This new discovery adds some clarity to that timeline. At about a half foot (16 centimeters) long, the tadpole is a younger version of an extinct giant frog.

“It’s starting to help narrow the timeframe in which a frog becomes a frog,” said Ben Kligman, a paleontologist at the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History who was not involved with the research.

The results were published Wednesday in the journal Nature.

The fossil is strikingly similar to the tadpoles of today — even containing remnants of a gill scaffold system that modern-day tadpoles use to sift food particles from water.

That means the amphibians’ survival strategy has stayed tried and true for millions of years, helping them outlast several mass extinctions, Kligman said.

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Giant Fish In The Mekong River

 

 A huge fish in the Mekong River thought to be extinct has been spotted three times in recent years.

“The giant salmon carp is like a symbol of the Mekong region,” said Chheana Chhut, a researcher at the Inland Fisheries Research and Development Institute in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

The predatory fish can grow up to 4 feet in length, and has a conspicuous knob at the tip of its lower jaw. A striking patch of yellow surrounds its large eyes.

With the last confirmed sighting in 2005, “this species of fish seems to have disappeared from the Mekong region for decades,” said Chheana, who is a co-author of a study published online Monday in the journal Biological Conservation that documents the recent sightings.

Since 2017, biologists tracking migratory fish species in Cambodia have developed relationships with local fishing communities, asking them to alert any unusual sightings.

That’s how the three giant salmon carp found in the Mekong River and a tributary in Cambodia between 2020 and 2023 came to the attention of researchers.

“I was really surprised and excited to see the real fish for the first time,” said Bunyeth Chan, a study co-author and researcher at Svay Rieng University in Cambodia.

Researchers say the sightings give them new hope for the fate of the species. One nickname for the species is “ghost fish.”

“This rediscovery is very exciting, positive news,” said Zeb Hogan, a fish biologist at the University of Nevada, Reno, who was part of the team.

But the plight of the fish also spotlights the perils facing all migratory species in the Mekong, which faces industrial pollution and overfishing.

More than 700 dams are built along the river and its tributaries and there are very few functional “fish passages” to help species navigate obstructions, said Brian Eyler, director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Stimson Center in Washington, who was not involved in the research.

The biologists said they hope that working with local communities in Thailand and Laos will enable them to confirm if the fish still swims in other stretches of the Mekong River.

‘I agree’

 

A wrongful death lawsuit against Walt Disney Parks and Resorts is serving as a reminder to consumers of the importance of reading the fine print when signing up for a streaming service or smartphone app.

The lawsuit was filed by the family of a New York woman who died after eating at a restaurant in Disney Springs, an outdoor dining, shopping and entertainment complex in Florida owned by Disney.

Disney is arguing that the lawsuit should be dropped because the plaintiff, the woman’s husband, once signed up for a trial subscription of the Disney+ streaming service. That service, they argue, includes a subscriber agreement in which the customer agrees to settle any lawsuits against Disney out of court through arbitration.

Such agreements, which customers quickly consent to by clicking “I agree” when downloading an app or a streaming service, are so stacked against the consumer that it’s often difficult to offer good legal advice, said John Davisson, director of litigation at the Electronic Privacy Information Center.

“The consumer is presented with this contract and really doesn’t have an opportunity to negotiate the terms,” Davisson said. “It’s yes or no.”

What are the details of the lawsuit against Disney?

Kanokporn Tangsuan’s family says in the lawsuit that the 42-year-old New York doctor had a fatal allergic reaction after eating at an Irish pub in Disney Springs.

The lawsuit claims Tangsuan and her husband, Jeffrey Piccolo, and his mother decided to eat at Raglan Road in October 2023 because it was billed on Disney’s website as having “allergen free food.”

The suit alleges Tangsuan informed their server numerous times that she had a severe allergy to nuts and dairy products, and that the waiter “guaranteed” the food was allergen-free.

About 45 minutes after finishing their dinner, Tangsuan had difficulty breathing while out shopping, collapsed and died at a hospital, according to the lawsuit.

A medical examiner determined she died as a result of “anaphylaxis due to elevated levels of dairy and nut in her system,” the lawsuit said.

What is Disney’s position?

Disney said in a statement this week that it is “deeply saddened” by the family’s loss but stressed that the Irish pub, which also is being sued, is neither owned nor operated by the company.

More notably from a consumer protection standpoint, Disney argues that Piccolo had agreed to settle any lawsuits against Disney out of court through arbitration when he signed up for a one-month trial of Disney+ in 2019 and acknowledged that he had reviewed the fine print.

“The first page of the Subscriber Agreement states, in all capital letters, that ‘any dispute between You and Us, Except for Small Claims, is subject to a class action waiver and must be resolved by individual binding arbitration’,” the company wrote in a motion seeking to have the case dismissed.

Arbitration allows people to settle disputes without going to court and generally involves a neutral arbitrator who reviews arguments and evidence before making a binding decision, or award.

Piccolo’s lawyer, in a response filed this month, argued that it was “absurd” to believe that the more than 150 million subscribers to Disney+ have waived all rights to sue the company and its affiliates in perpetuity — especially when their case has nothing to do with the popular streaming service.

What can consumers do to protect themselves?

While it’s difficult to give consumers actionable advice when such agreements are so lopsided in favor of companies, Davisson suggested supporting lawmakers and regulators who are attentive to these issues.

The Federal Trade Commission has historically supported the idea of disclosure terms protecting companies, even though the agreements are often dense and hard for typical consumers to comprehend. But Davisson says there has been a shift among policymakers and federal regulators.

“Generally, it’s understood that it is literally impossible for consumers to read and interpret and fully understand all of the contracts that they’re being asked and expected by the law to agree to and abide by as they go about their day,” he said. “Especially in an increasingly online world in which we’re interacting with dozens or hundreds of platforms and services a day.”

___

Lift Up Young Musicians

 

ANAHEIM, California (Alb Micky) — For over two years, Ebonie Vazquez searched to find a mentor of color for her son, Giovanni, now 11 and passionate about playing the violin. She has now found that space at a local church.

New Hope Presbyterian Church, a multiethnic congregation led by a Black female pastor in Anaheim, California, started a string orchestra in April, welcoming students, including those who may have trouble getting into and paying for music programs. It’s located in Orange County, which is largely affluent.

The Rev. Chineta Goodjoin said her church had a smaller strings program for several years. When Goodjoin’s daughter Nyla started playing violin with the Inner City Youth Orchestra of Los Angeles, founded in June 2009 by renowned conductor Charles Dickerson, the pastor grew determined to replicate the concept in Orange County with Dickerson taking the lead.

The church’s orchestra now has about 18 members ranging in age from 9 to 20, playing violin, viola, bass and cello. The orchestra accepts all students without auditions, and it’s free. Like the Los Angeles group, the orchestra is also powered by mentors who look like the young musicians they help guide.

Ebonie Vazquez says it is empowering for students “to see themselves reflected in their mentors and teachers.”

“It’s important they don’t feel like outsiders, but are supported and feel like they belong,” she said. “It has definitely helped my son connect more to the music and the craft.”

During rehearsal, when Giovanni started talking about music, the boy’s eyes turned dreamy and his arms became animated. Even as his words gushed out in child-like excitement, they reflected the aura of an old soul.

“I just want to be able to express myself in my music and show that I not only have talent, but I also take my time, and I practice,” he said. “You can change one little thing, one note, and the music will be totally different. You make your own thing.”

Giovanni said that in the church orchestra, he could play classical music or he could chill with Imagine Dragons. He also plays violin in his school orchestra and with Dickerson’s Los Angeles group. He values being part of the church orchestra because “it’s a piece of our community.”

“They encourage young musicians of color and everyone gets a chance to play and maybe use it as a stepping stone to get better or even turn this into a career,” he said.

Giovanni thinks it could be cool to play in Carnegie Hall. He pauses, then adds: “But honestly, I just want to play around people who listen to and value music. My favorite part is really to see people enjoy music.”

Melissa Bausley, a cellist who works in finance and volunteers as a mentor, said she often found herself alone as a Black woman in this realm.

“I never had a teacher that was African American growing up and I didn’t think it mattered or made a difference,” she said. “But now, as an adult, I’d say there is absolutely value in being able to learn from someone who looks like you.”

Dickerson said he started the Los Angeles orchestra when he was approached by a group of students who yearned to play in their city and neighborhood.

“They would have to drive long distances to be in these orchestras where they didn’t know the other kids and felt like the odd ones,” he said. “The young kids from our communities were always put in the back row and the back row was right next to the door.”

“It’s easy to walk out that door,” he added, “when you don’t really feel accepted and when you know you’re probably not as skilled as the others who have a smattering of connections and have been playing since they were three.”

Goodjoin said she and her husband, Reggie Goodjoin, a jazz musician and the church’s music director, envision an orchestra where “African American kids play classical music and play it well.”

“Not modified or watered down abridgements, but the real deal,” she said. “I like to say they play everything from Bach to Beyonce. We want them exposed to all genres.”

The children will play sacred and secular music as well as the work of Black composers, and the orchestra is open to children of all faith backgrounds, Goodjoin said.

“They learn the music of Count Basie and Duke Ellington and so many others who have forged the path — an experience they might not get in a mainstream school setting,” she said.

She believes the church is a great place to start talking about equity in music.

“We value social justice and equity and we believe we are called to help the marginalized, to set the captives free,” Goodjoin said. “And music is freedom.”

The pastor is already getting positive feedback from parents. One boy who plays the upright bass was about to quit playing because no one in his school orchestra looked like him.

“His mom said that when he came here, the pressure to play and compete was taken off and that it’s a delight to now watch her son light up feeling a sense of worthiness,” she said.

Carol Nealy, whose 9-year-old son Johnathan plays the violin, said the church has the ability to nourish the community — be it with food, spirituality or music.

“Because of this program, my kids are exposed to the violin. It’s no longer something untouchable or foreign,” she said. “It’ll have an impact for generations because their children will see their parents pick up and play the violin.”

Elizabeth Moulthrop, executive director of El Sistema, an international network of music education programs that was founded in Venezuela, said she has seen similar programs run out of churches.

“Music and art have always been such an important part of the church,” she said. “It’s a natural place for expression of faith.”

For those who aspire to advance in the field, such programs also offer access to life-changing summer music camps, college scholarships and connections to jobs, Moulthrop said.

Dickerson says the orchestras are an attempt “to add to the value of what we need in our community.”

“The goal is to uplift young people and give them the opportunity for a better life,” he said.

“A lot of young people feel like it’s not cool to carry a violin down the street,” he added. “But, when you play the violin well with other kids who are like you, social acceptance begins to emerge. You feel pride as opposed to shame because you’re not out there shooting hoops.”

The Black Church has always served as a place where the community could come together, Dickerson said.

“It’s the one place in history where we’ve been able to assemble without interference from other cultures, so to speak,” he said. “The church started banks when Blacks could not put money in banks. They started newspapers when no one was prepared to cover our communities. We even started baseball leagues when we were barred from playing.

“If we can come together in the church and create a symphonic orchestra, all I can say is all praise to God.”

Alb Micky - Nun

Alb Micky - Nun

 

For the Kremlin

 

Russia’s ruble is sagging against other currencies, complicating the Kremlin’s efforts to keep consumer inflation under control with one hand even as it overheats the economy with spending on the war against Ukraine with the other.

The official central bank rate for Friday was set at 109 to the U.S. dollar, meaning the ruble is worth less than a penny in dollar terms. At that rate, the ruble was bouncing back from lows around 114 to the dollar touched earlier in the week.

There have been similar declines against the Chinese yuan, which has largely replaced dollars and euros for foreign trade after sanctions imposed by Ukraine’s Western allies cut Russia off from most dealings with Western companies and banks.

Russians interviewed on the street Friday in Moscow - where incautious remarks can lead to jail time - took the decline in stride.

Muscovite Yekaterina, who declined to offer her last name, said she had just made a prepayment for a vacation in Egypt, adding “I’m afraid to know what the rest of payment will be.” But she added: “Maybe it only concerns us individually, people who love travelling. But for Russian economy it’s not that bad. Internal tourism, domestic industry are developing.”

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Semyon, again no last name, was even less concerned. “My salary is in rubles, I pay taxes in rubles, I buy a car in rubles and buy groceries in rubles. What do I need the dollar for, explain that to me, please.”

The Kremlin is engaged in a tricky juggle. Government spending on the war has factories running at top speed and the economy growing more strongly than many expected given sanctions. The resulting inflation - an annual 8.5% in October - has led the central bank to crank up its interest rate benchmark to a painful 21% to slow borrowing and spending. That has led to complaints from business leaders hit with high credit costs and fostered predictions from economists that tight credit will eventually slow the economy.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the recent decline was “connected not only with inflation processes, it is also connected with payments to the budget, it is connected with oil prices, there are many factors of a seasonal nature.”

“Therefore, in general, in my opinion, the situation is under control and there are certainly no grounds for panic.”

The ruble and inflation nonetheless remain key concerns for the Kremlin, said Janis Kluge, an expert on the Russian economy at the German Institute for Security and International Affairs in Berlin.

“The inflation rate and the exchange rate, those two are very visible and you can feel it in your pocket,” he said. “And there is no propaganda in the world that will convince you prices are not rising when prices are rising. So this is why the Kremlin is so sensitive and really prioritizes fighting inflation so much.”

A lower ruble means Russians will over time pay more for imports, especially for autos, household appliances and electronics made in China, now Russia’s chief trade partner, said Kluge.

There are multiple reasons behind the ruble’s recent decline from levels as high as 85 to the dollar in August. The price of oil - Russia’s most important export - has weakened; foreign investors are no longer available to purchase ruble investments, and Russia’s inflation rate means its currency tends to lose value against those of trade partners.

A key factor recently may have been U.S. Treasury Department sanctions against Russia’s Gazprombank, announced Nov. 21. Since the bank was the conduit for customers for what was left of Russia’s oil and natural gas trade in Europe, the sanctions blocked one source of foreign earnings and increased pressure on the ruble. A big question is when, and whether, Russia might find a workaround for that.

The weaker ruble isn’t all bad for the Kremlin, since it increases oil and gas export earnings in ruble terms. For now the central bank is managing the rate as best it can after the shock of Gazprombank sanctions, said Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro-Advisory Ltd. Since there is no open market trading of the ruble on the Moscow or any other exchange due to sanctions, the rate is set by the central bank based on its estimate of trade requirements.

“The market now is entirely under the control of the central bank, and they set the rates every evening based on what they see, the inflow of money coming from from Russians exporters and the demand for FX from companies who want to buy goods,” said Weafer, using the abbreviation for foreign exchange.

“Nevertheless, there there was this shock element of when Gazprombank was added to sanctions,” he said. “They have decided that the best course of action over the short term is to allow the ruble to weaken. And that is because it significantly helps the finance ministry.”

The central bank will have to juggle inflation and budget concerns and come up with the rate best suited to circumstances, said Weafer. One way of doing that would be to require exporters to change more of their foreign currency earnings to rubles: “They will have to put all of those factors together and come up with what they believe is the optimal rate.”

UK inflation Pushed to 6-month high in October

 

 Inflation in the U.K. rose sharply to a six-month high in October and back above the rate targeted by rate-setters at the Bank of England, official figures showed Wednesday, cementing market expectations that there will be no further cuts in borrowing costs this year.

The Office for National Statistics said higher domestic energy bills pushed up consumer price inflation up to 2.3% in the year to October from the three-year low of 1.7% recorded the previous month. Stubbornly high inflation in the services sector, which accounts for around 80% of the British economy, didn’t help either.

The increase, which was above forecasts for a more modest increase, took inflation above the bank’s target rate of 2%.

Earlier this month, the bank decreased its main interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.75% — the second in three months — after inflation fell to its lowest level since April 2021.

However, Bank Gov. Andrew Bailey cautioned that rates wouldn’t be falling too fast over the coming months, partly because last month’s budget measures from the new Labour government would likely see prices rise by more than they would otherwise have done. Rate-setters will meet once more this year, on Dec. 19, by which time they will be armed with more monthly inflation readings.

Central banks worldwide dramatically increased borrowing costs from near zero during the coronavirus pandemic when prices started to shoot up, first as a result of supply chain issues and then because of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine which pushed up energy costs.

As inflation rates have fallen from multidecade highs, the central banks have started cutting interest rates, though few, if any, economists think that rates will fall back to the super-low levels that persisted in the years after the global financial crisis of 2008-9.

Recent developments have scaled back expectations of rapid cuts from the Bank of England.

In her budget, British Treasury chief Rachel Reeves announced around 70 billion pounds ($90 billion) of extra spending, funded through increased business taxes and borrowing. Economists think that the splurge, coupled with the prospect of businesses cushioning the tax hikes by raising prices, could push inflation higher than it otherwise would have been.

The global inflation outlook has also become more uncertain since Donald Trump was reelected U.S. president. He has indicated that he will cut taxes and introduce tariffs on certain imported goods when he returns to the White House in January. Both policies have the potential to be inflationary both in the U.S. and globally, and thereby keeping interest rates higher than they otherwise would have been.

“While we think the Bank of England will continue to cut rates in 2025, the pace of rate cuts is expected to be slower than previously anticipated, and rates may stay elevated for longer,” said Monica George Michail, an economist at the National Institute for Economic and Social Research, a think tank that now reckons inflation will push above 3% in early 2025.

“This outlook reflects forecasted inflationary pressures stemming from the recently announced budget, in addition to heightened global uncertainty, particularly surrounding the Trump presidency,” she added.

Inflation rose to 2.3% in Europe

 Inflation in the 20 countries that use the euro currency rose in November — but that likely won’t stop the European Central Bank from cutting interest rates as the prospect of new U.S. tariffs from the incoming Trump administration adds to the gloom over weak growth.

The European Union’s harmonized index of consumer prices stood up 2.3% in the year to November, up from 2.0% in October, the EU statistics agency Eurostat reported Friday.

Energy prices fell 1.9% from a year ago, but that was offset by price increases of 3.9% in the services sector, a broad category including haircuts, medical treatment, hotels and restaurants, and sports and entertainment.

Inflation has come down a long way from the peak of 10.6% in October 2022 as the ECB quickly raised rates to cool off price rises. It then started cutting them in June as worries about growth came into sharper focus.

High central bank benchmark rates combat inflation by influencing borrowing costs throughout the economy. Higher rates make buying things on credit — whether a car, a house or a new factory — more expensive and thus reduce demand for goods and take pressure off prices. However, higher rates can also dampen growth.

Growth worries got new emphasis after surveys of purchasing managers compiled by S&P Global showed the eurozone economy was contracting in October. On top of that come concerns about how U.S. trade policy under incoming President Donald Trump, including possible new tariffs, or import taxes on imported goods, might affect Europe’s export-dependent economy. Trump takes office Jan. 20.

The eurozone’s economic output is expected to grow 0.8% for all of this year and 1.3% next year, according to the European Commission’s most recent forecast.

All that has meant the discussion about the Dec. 12 ECB meeting has focused not on whether the Frankfurt-based bank’s rate council will cut rates, but by how much. Market discussion has included the possibility of a larger than usual half-point cut in the benchmark rate, currently 3.25%.

Inflation in Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy, held steady at 2.4%. That “will strengthen opposition against a 50 basis point cut,” said Carsten Brzeski, global chief of macro at ING bank, using financial jargon for a half-percentage-point cut.

The ECB sets interest rate policy for the European Union member countries that have joined the euro currency.

Interest Rate to 21%

Central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina said that inflation is expected to double the bank’s target of an annual 4% and emphasized that the bank remains committed to bringing it down to the targeted level.

MOSCOW (Micky) — Russia’s central bank on Friday raised its key interest rate by two percentage points to a record-high 21% in an effort to stem growing inflation as massive government spending on the military amid the fighting in Ukraine strains the economy’s capacity to produce goods and services and drives up workers’ wages.

The central bank said in a statement that “growth in domestic demand is still significantly outstripping the capabilities to expand the supply of goods and services.” Inflation, the statement said, “is running considerably above the Bank of Russia’s July forecast,” and “inflation expectations continue to increase.” It held out the prospect of more rate increases in December.

Russia’s economy continues to show growth as a result of booming oil export revenues and a hike in government spending, the bulk of which goes to the military as the conflict in Ukraine has dragged into a third year. That has fueled inflation, which the central bank has tried to combat with higher rates that make it more expensive to borrow and spend on goods, in theory relieving pressure on prices.

Central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina said that inflation is expected to double the bank’s target of an annual 4% and emphasized that the bank remains committed to bringing it down to the targeted level.

Nabiullina noted that inflation has overshot the goals because of increased government spending and lenient banking regulations that encouraged commercial banks to offer more loans. Years of price growth that exceeded the targets have fueled high inflationary expectations among consumers, she added.

“There is a high inertia of inflationary expectations as the inflation has exceeded the target level for four years,” Nabiullina said. “The more inflation exceeds the targets, the less people and companies believe that it could fall back to low levels.”

This is the highest key interest rate in Russia since it was introduced in 2013 and effectively replaced the refinancing rate, a similar instrument. The previous high was in February 2022, when the central bank raised the rates to a then-unprecedented 20% in a desperate bid to shore up the ruble in response to crippling Western sanctions that came after the Kremlin sent troops into Ukraine.

Russia’s economy grew 4.4% in the second quarter of 2024, with unemployment low at 2.4%. Factories are largely running at full speed, and an increasing number of them are focusing on weapons and other military gear. Domestic producers are also stepping in to fill the gaps left by a drop in imports that have been affected by Western sanctions and foreign companies’ decisions to stop doing business in Russia.

Government revenues are supported by economic growth and by continuing exports of oil and gas with less-than-airtight sanctions and a $60 price cap imposed by Western governments on Russian oil. The cap is enforced by barring Western insurers and shippers from handling oil priced over the cap. But Russia has been able to evade the price cap by lining up its own fleet of tankers without Western insurance, and it earned some $17 billion in oil revenues in July.

Chris Weafer, CEO at Macro-Advisory Ltd. consultancy, noted that with the rate hike the central bank wants to raise its “concern about the imbalances that emerged in the economy” that could lead to “serious problems down the road that could even trigger maybe a crisis or a recession.”

He noted that the booming defense spending, with over a third of next year’s budget allocated to the military-industrial complex, has driven economic growth along with soaring consumer spending but also deepened imbalances in the economy.

Labor shortages resulting from a decrease in population and exacerbated by workers leaving factory jobs to join the military have driven a massive increase in wages and fueled a consumer boom. “The central bank is trying to keep the interest rates as high as possible to try and cool that because they warn of the overheating in the consumer economy, which of course can destabilize the economy before too long,” Weafer said.

He described the rate hike as “not so much a cry for help, but a scream of pain from the central bank,” sending a signal to the government that the current high level of spending on military issues can’t continue indefinitely.

Trudeau flies to Florida to meet with Trump

 

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau flew to Florida on Friday to have dinner with President-elect Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago club after Trump threatened to impose sweeping tariffs on Canadian products.

Trump threatened to impose tariffs on products from Canada and Mexico if they don’t stop what he called the flow of drugs and migrants across their borders. He said he would impose a 25% tax on all products entering the U.S. from Canada and Mexico as one of his first executive orders.

A person familiar with the details called it a “positive wide-ranging dinner that lasted three hours.” The official, who was not authorized to speak publicly and spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity, said topics included trade, border security, fentanyl, defense, Ukraine, NATO, China and pipelines, as well as the the Group of Seven meeting in Canada next year.

Northern California

 

A major storm moving through Northern California on Nov. 21 toppled trees and dropped heavy snow and record amounts of rain after damaging homes.

Killing two people and knocking out power to hundreds of thousands of customers in the Pacific Northwest. Forecasters warned the risk of flash flooding and rockslides would continue. Scores of flights in and out of San Francisco’s airport were canceled.

In Washington, more than 320,000 people—most of them in the Seattle area—were still without power Nov. 21 as crews worked to clear streets of electrical lines, fallen branches and debris.

Meanwhile, on the East Coast, where rare wildfires have raged, New York and New Jersey welcomed much-needed rain that could ease the fire danger for the rest of the year.

The National Weather Service extended a flood watch into Nov. 23 for areas North of San Francisco as the region was inundated by the strongest atmospheric river—a long and wide plume of moisture that forms over an ocean and flows through the sky over land—

So far this season. The storm system roared ashore Nov. 19 as a “bomb cyclone,” unleashing winds that brought down trees and left two dead in Washington.

This satellite image taken, Nov. 19, and provided by NOAA, shows weather gathering in northern California and the Pacific Northwest. Photo: NOAA via AP

Up to 16 inches of rain was forecast in southwestern Oregon and the northern counties of California through Nov. 22. The Sonoma County Airport, in wine country North of San Francisco, received 6.92 inches of rain Nov. 20, breaking a record dating to 1998.

In nearby Forestville, one person was hurt when a tree fell on a house. Small landslides were reported across California’s North Bay region, including one on State Route 281 on Nov. 20 that caused a car crash, according to Marc Chenard, a weather service meteorologist.

Rain slowed somewhat but “persistent heavy rain will enter the picture again by Nov. 22,  morning,” the weather service office in San Francisco said on X. “We are not done!”

Dangerous flash flooding, rockslides and debris flows were possible, especially where hillsides were loosened by recent wildfires, officials warned. Scott Rowe, a hydrologist with the weather service in Sacramento, said so far the ground has been able to absorb the rain in California’s Butte and Tehama counties where the Park Fire burned over the summer.

“It’s not necessarily how much rain falls; it’s how fast the rain falls,” Rowe said Nov. 21.

Northern Mendocino and southern Humboldt counties received anywhere from 4 to 8 inches  of rain in the last 48 hours, and the same amounts were expected over the next 48 hours, California forecasters said Nov. 21. Wind gusts could top 50 mph.

The storm system, which first hit the Pacific Northwest on Nov. 19, reached the status of “ bomb cyclone,” which occurs when a cyclone intensifies rapidly.

A winter storm watch was in place for the northern Sierra Nevada above 3,500 feet (1,066 meters), where 15 inches of snow was possible over two days. Wind gusts could top 75 mph in mountain areas, forecasters said.

The storm had already dumped more than a foot of snow along the Cascades by Nov. 20, evening, according to the weather service. Forecasters warned of blizzard and whiteout conditions and near impossible travel at pass level.

In Washington, there were more than 320,000 power outage reports Nov. 21, morning from strong winds and rain on Nov. 19, night according to poweroutage.us.

“We haven’t had a storm like this since January of 2012,” said Mary Kipp, president of Puget Sound Energy, which serves over 1.2 million electric customers in the state. She estimated Nov. 21 that it would be at least a few days for full restoration.

Falling trees struck homes and littered roads across western Washington, killing at least two people. One woman in Lynnwood was killed when a large tree fell on a homeless encampment, while another woman in Bellevue was killed when a tree fell on a home.

More than a dozen schools were closed in the Seattle area Nov. 20 and some opted to extend those closures through Nov. 21.

In Enumclaw, East of Seattle, residents were cleaning up after their town clocked the highest winds in the state on the night of Nov. 19: 74 mph.

Resident Sophie Keene said the powerful gusts caused transformers to blow out around town. “Things were exploding, like, everywhere,” Keene told the Seattle Times. “Like the transformers over by the park. One blew big, it looked like fireworks just going off.”

In California, there were reports of about 9,000 power outages on the morning of Nov. 21, down from more than 20,000 on the night of Nov. 20.

In Northern California, only 50 vehicles per hour were allowed through part of northbound Interstate 5 from 10 miles North of Redding to 21 miles South of Yreka due to snow, according to the state’s Department of Transportation.

About 150 flights were delayed and another two dozen were canceled early Nov. 21 at San Francisco International Airport, after hundreds were delayed and dozens were canceled on Nov. 20, according to tracking service FlightAware.

The weather service issued a flood watch for parts of southwestern Oregon through Nov. 22 evening, while rough winds and seas temporarily halted a ferry route in northwestern Washington between Port Townsend and Coupeville.

Parched areas of the Northeast got a much needed shot of precipitation Nov. 21, providing a bit of respite in a region plagued by wildfires and dwindling water supplies. More than two inches of rain was expected to fall by the morning of Nov. 23 in areas North of New York City, with snow mixed in at some higher elevations.

“Any rainfall is going to be significant at this point,” said Brian Ciemnecki, a weather service meteorologist in New York City, where the first drought warning in 22 years was issued this week. “Is it going to break the drought? No, we’re going to need more rain than that.”