In the early hours of May 7, a major military clash broke out between India and Pakistan, with the former launching synchronized missile strikes on positions across Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir that it described as “terrorist infrastructure.”
Pakistan said it had shot down five Indian Air Force jets, a claim not confirmed by the Indian side. It was followed by heavy artillery exchanges along their de facto border.
Pakistan said Indian strikes had killed at least 26 civilians and wounded 46 others, and India said Pakistani artillery fire killed 10 civilians and injured 48 others along the Line of Control (LoC).
Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh insisted that civilians were not impacted by Indian missile strikes, saying they “only hit those who killed innocents.”
“Under the guidance of PM Narendra Modi, our armed forces have made us all proud,” he said.
Earlier, in a statement, Pakistan’s National Security Committee said India’s “unjustified attacks deliberately targeted the civilian areas, on the false pretext of the presence of imaginary terrorist camps.”
While the world fears a major escalation between the two nuclear powers, experiences with previous border skirmishes give optimism that the conflict will remain limited in nature.
Many countries have urged the two sides to exercise restraint, including the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei, in a statement on May 7, “expressed deep concern over the escalating tensions” and urged both countries to “exercise restraint.”
Why did the latest conflict break out?
The latest conflict is linked to a terrorist attack in a hill resort of Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir on April 22, which led to a dramatic escalation of tensions between the two arch-rivals.
At least 28 tourists were killed in the attack that drew sharp condemnation across the world.
Indian media pointed to a relatively obscure group, the Resistance Front (TRF), which surfaced on social media to claim responsibility. However, TRF later issued a public denial of any involvement in the attack.
Indian authorities contend the TRF is a proxy for Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistan-based terrorist organization, pointing fingers at Islamabad as indirectly responsible for the attack.
Just a day after the attack, India annulled the 65-year-old Indus Water Treaty (IWT) on the use of water resources of the Indus River and its tributaries.
Under that agreement, India received control of 30 percent of the total water, while Pakistan received 70 percent. The importance of the Indus for Pakistan is similar to the importance of the Nile for Egypt, as over 90 percent of agriculture depends on this river.
India announced the redirection of the water flow and the construction of large dams that will, in the words of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, “keep India’s water in India.”
Pakistan denied any role in the terrorist attack and responded to India’s move by abandoning the Shimla Agreement, the peace treaty that ended the major Indo-Pakistani war of 1971.
Why the conflict over Kashmir?
Kashmir, the northernmost region of South Asia, has been the subject of a longstanding territorial dispute between India and Pakistan, two South Asian powerhouses.
When British India was partitioned in 1947 into India and Pakistan, the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, with a Muslim-majority population but a Hindu ruler, Maharaja Hari Singh, became a point of contention.
The Maharaja initially chose independence but acceded to India under pressure from tribal incursions supported by Pakistan, sparking the first Indo-Pakistani war (1947-48).
The United Nations brokered a ceasefire in 1949, which was agreed upon by both conflicting parties, establishing a Line of Control (LoC), a de facto border that divides the region.
India controls Jammu, Kashmir Valley, and Ladakh (about 45 percent of the region), Pakistan controls Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan (about 35 percent), and China controls Aksai Chin (about 20 percent) following the 1962 Sino-Indian War.
Both India and Pakistan claim the entire region of Jammu and Kashmir, which has been the source of conflict, bloodshed and intermittent border skirmishes.
India views it as an integral part of its territory, while Pakistan argues for self-determination of the Kashmiri people, citing the Muslim-majority population and UN resolutions calling for a plebiscite, which never occurred due to disagreements.
The dispute fuels broader India-Pakistan rivalry, with both nations being nuclear powers, raising global concerns about escalation and its global repercussions.
Mutual distrust and domestic political pressures in both countries make compromise difficult, as well as strategic interests like water resources from the Himalayan Rivers. The views of the Kashmiri people vary as some seek independence, others favor India or Pakistan, but many prioritize peace and economic stability.
What are the past India-Pakistan conflicts?
India and Pakistan have been involved in several wars, conflicts, border skirmishes and military standoffs over the Kashmir region.
The first Indo-Pakistani war (1947-48) was the first of four major Indo-Pakistani wars, triggered by tribal incursions from the western districts. These rebel forces were supported with weapons, ammunition, and supplies by Pakistan, which officially joined the war after six months of conflict.
After another six months and with tens of thousands of casualties, the conflict was ended by UN mediation. The war ended without a clear winner, but India seized large parts of the region.
The second Indo-Pakistani war (1965) broke out due to Pakistan’s military infiltration in India-controlled Kashmir and lasted for a month.
It resulted in major armored battles and thousands of deaths, and was ended with the Tashkent Agreement, again without a clear victor.
The next major conflict was the Siachen War (1984-2003), over the disputed 2,500 square kilometer Siachen Glacier region in northern Kashmir. The conflict was triggered after India reportedly seized the said glacier with its tributary glaciers, all major mountain passes and border ridges.
After almost two decades of intermittent fighting and thousands of deaths, primarily due to frostbite, avalanches and other natural hazards, the war ended with a ceasefire.
The Kargil War (1999) started with Pakistan’s military infiltration in the Kargil district of Ladakh in India-controlled Jammu and Kashmir. The move led to an Indian counter-offensive, and the war ended after three months with hundreds of deaths on both sides. Pakistan withdrew due to international pressure.
In the 21st century, the two sides had at least ten border skirmishes in which sometimes a handful, sometimes hundreds of soldiers and civilians were killed.
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